“Mathematical models that predict policy-driving scenarios—such as how a new pandemic might spread or the future amount of irrigation water needed worldwide—may be too complex and delivering ”wrong” answers, a new study reveals.”
Researchers from the Universities of Birmingham, Princeton, Reading, Barcelona and Bergen published their findings this week in Science Advances. They reveal that expanding models without checking how extra detail adds uncertainty limits the models’ usefulness as tools to inform policy decisions in the real world.